A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
